1

Our new Deepseek-based AI Says

Aaron Barbosa edited this page 2025-02-27 01:35:11 +02:00

Our new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl predictions from our brand-new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

Share this post

No one can forecast the future however at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to offer it its finest shot. With as much as date news and a small but spirited 14 Billion specification design, our AI is boldly anticipating the unpredictable. Join us as we attempt to address humanity's hardest questions.

Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us and, just as two years ago, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread currently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the statistics are well studied, there remain numerous pushing questions that are less simple to pin down. Our business, Lightning arrester Labs, has been mining questions from locations like polymarket.com and training a large language design to be much better at predicting the future (and have seen some appealing improvements - research study paper inbound). This week we turned its cold, determining eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can give us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world subscribe to my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion specification design which is really on the smaller side. (Some quotes suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION parameters and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from numerous months earlier so we have actually built an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each concern we offer the news and watch as the AI reasons its way through unknown area to make its finest forecast possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We presented the following concerns to our AI and assessed its reaction. While we have actually seen prediction improvements from our training, use these quotes for prop wagering at your own hazard.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% chance

And menwiki.men so it appears this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI thinks Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, utahsyardsale.com but a little too personal for a post-Super Bowl proposal. Plus got ta factor in if the Chiefs lose. That would be an awkward proposition ...

First, I'll look at the bottom lines from the short articles. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor because 2023. He's a big football star, and she's been helpful of his profession, attending his video games. They appear to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has actually even invited her loved ones to the Super Bowl, revealing her dedication.

Some fans are excited, while others, especially Swifties, are a bit uncertain, specifically provided remarks Travis made about Donald Trump participating in the Super Bowl. That has actually triggered some Swifties to question how is for Taylor. However, the couple seems to be keeping their relationship private and not addressing the speculation straight.

I believe the crucial points are the speculation and his incredibly elusive responses. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential event, the odds and his actions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low likelihood, possibly around 5%, considering all factors.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% opportunity

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its just a different front-tush being pressed. Will an AI understand what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even understand what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (controversy aside) Josh Allen's similar efforts? Appears like our AI thinks they'll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again throughout this video game.

Alright, I'm attempting to find out the likelihood that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the Super Bowl. First, I need to comprehend exactly what a "tush-push" is. From the posts, it appears like it's a technique where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to press off defenders. It's compared to pressing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and technique.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts utilizes his leg strength, having done a 600-pound squat, to carry out the relocation. The short article points out that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this strategy, which is pretty high. ... I likewise need to consider the defensive methods of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are mindful of the Eagles' "tush-push" technique, they might adjust their defense accordingly, which might either increase or reduce the variety of times the Eagles use it.

Considering that more than five appears like a considerable number however possible given their confidence, I would approximate a probability around 60-70% possibility. This accounts for their preparation, confidence in the method, and the probability that they'll use it a number of times, specifically if it works early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime program performance?

AI Final Prediction: 65% possibility

While our AI may not be like us when it pertains to consciousness, a soul, or any physical symptom, it certainly has opinions on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling backward and forward, but in the end it thinks Kendrick isn't going to pull back from a fight.

From the posts, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of slamming Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a declaration during a previous halftime show when Trump was present in 2018. That appears significant since it shows he's done it in the past, so maybe he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent articles, it mentions that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That could suggest he's less most likely to address Trump this time.

However, he's likewise involved in a fight with Drake, which may provide him reasons to make some public statements, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal concerns surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a disparagement fit from Drake, so perhaps he bewares about including any controversial songs in the performance. But since he won the Grammys for that track, he might still desire to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent event, Lamar might feel compelled to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to avoid political statements during the halftime show, so there's a danger that such content may be limited or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a performance history of making strong relocations on big stages. He's the first solo rap act to heading the halftime show, which may provide him more creative freedom. Plus, his past behavior recommends he's not shy about revealing his opinions, even in public performances.

But I likewise keep in mind reading that Lamar revealed tiredness about criticizing Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might suggest he's less encouraged to raise Trump this time around, particularly if he's concentrating on his fight with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, current shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the occasion's context-the likelihood seems to be reasonably high, possibly around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% possibility

Lets be honest, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who doesn't? Will the reality that our AI has never tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its prediction? Appears like theres rather of a chance that if the chiefs taste triumph, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the posts, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid consuming a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl celebration. Bradshaw later said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't imply to cause offense and that he in fact discovered it humorous himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which may suggest he's the type to laugh it off instead of getting upset.

Looking at the posts, it mentions that Andy Reid is a food lover and loves cheeseburgers. There's a post specifically about his love for food, which recommends that he's an individual who takes pleasure in eating, specifically with his team. So, if there were plans to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would engage in a cheeseburger, specifically if the scenario is on screen for an event.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% opportunity

"Tails never ever fails?" You can't deceive the machines !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have been predicting the coin toss and 53% are forecasting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 extremely bowls. Potentially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and thinks anything can take place when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm attempting to figure out the possibility that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is supposed to be 50/50, but there's some historical data that may affect this forecast.

First, I review the posts offered. They all discuss the historical data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It appears like tails has actually come up regularly than heads traditionally. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has actually been the outcome 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which has to do with 48%. So, based purely on history, tails has a small edge, but it's not a huge distinction.

However, I bear in mind that the outcome of a coin toss is usually thought about random. The small historic edge for tails could be due to possibility. But when making forecasts, in some cases individuals weigh historic information even if it's not statistically significant. So, I need to consider whether this historical predisposition should influence the likelihood.

After thinking about it, I decide that while the historic information reveals a small choice for tails, it's not statistically significant sufficient to move the probability away from 0.5. So, I'll choose 0.5 as the probability, acknowledging that the small historical edge exists but does not bypass the reality that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% possibility

We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na help him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I promise we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training information) I would probably believe the very same. BUT, its official now because our AI states the possibilities are just 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still type of high when it pertains to fraud on a national scale). Looks like the Chiefs will have to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm attempting to find out the probability that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite major accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a lot of articles that speak about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are biased towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some questionable hire current video games, particularly the AFC Championship Game. That does seem to trigger some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get frustrated when their group loses due to what they view as bad officiating.

But then I check out that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "unbelievable" and "ludicrous." They state there's no proof of methodical predisposition. That's a strong declaration from the individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it may imply there's no real basis or they would have addressed it in a different way if there was some truth to it.

Looking at the posts, several sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They likewise mentioned that statistical analysis doesn't reveal any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For example, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have been punished more since 2022. That's interesting since if they were getting unique treatment, you might anticipate fewer penalties, right?

...

So, putting everything together, the likelihood that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely really low. Maybe not zero due to the fact that you can't dismiss every possibility, however very unlikely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth viewing the game still? I think I'll need to wait and see how the video game turns out before we release this upon the stock market. Fingers crossed for a good video game! And hello, if it ends up our AI was wrong about whatever, at least it can gain from this.